Every loss now counts double.
The field is closing in, and the Knicks’ grip on the Eastern Conference’s No. 3 seed is loosening fast.
Thursday’s 120-105 defeat in Charlotte was their second straight and sixth loss in the last nine games — a cold stretch coinciding with the absence of All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson, who continues to recover from a right ankle sprain.
Brunson is reportedly out of his walking boot and back to shooting drills, but a return could still be at least two weeks away.
And with New York dropping the first two games of what was supposed to be a gimme stretch against bottom-feeders, the Knicks’ margin for error is all but gone.
At least if holding on to the No. 3 seed is still the goal.
There’s a case to be made that falling to No. 4 could present a more favorable path to breaking through after back-to-back second-round playoff exits.
If the postseason started today, the Knicks would open against the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons — tough, but winnable — but face the reigning champion Boston Celtics in Round 2.
The Knicks are 0-3 against Boston this season, losing by an average of 21 points per game. Not so winnable.
Drop a spot, however, and the picture changes:
- If the Knicks fall to 4 and the Pacers move to 3, New York gets home-court vs. Milwaukee in Round 1, then likely draws Cleveland — not Boston — in the second round
- If the Bucks jump to 3 and the Pacers drop to 5, the Knicks would face Indiana at home in Round 1, and still avoid Boston until the Conference Finals
- If New York slips to 5, they’d face Milwaukee on the road in Round 1 — same Round 2 path, tougher start
- Fall to 6? That’s the nightmare: no home-court advantage and Boston waiting in Round 2
In short: any scenario where the Knicks land in the No. 4 or 5 slot — and Boston stays locked at 2 — sets up a more manageable Round 2 against Cleveland.
The Cavaliers might hold the East’s top record, but they’re not the Celtics. And if the goal is making it out of the second round, matchups matter.
Of course, Tom Thibodeau’s DNA is to win every game. But with Brunson sidelined, the reality is the losses might pile up either way — and they might not be the worst thing.
While New York stumbles, the rest of the East creeps closer. The Knicks may trail Boston by 7.5 games and Cleveland by 12.5, but the real threat lies below.
The chasing pack is closing in — fast.
STANDINGS IN A SNAPSHOT
No. 3 – Knicks
Record: 43-26
Last 10: 4-6
Games Remaining: 13 (including Saturday)
Remaining Opponents (by tier)
- Non Play-In Teams (5): vs. WSH (Mar. 22), vs. DAL (Mar. 25), vs. POR (Mar. 30), vs. PHI (Apr. 1), @ BKN (Apr. 13)
- Play-In Teams (3): vs. MIN, vs. SAC, vs. ORL
- Top-6 Seeds (5): vs. LAL, vs. OKC, vs. DEN, vs. CLE (x2)
According to Tankathon, the Knicks have the 12th-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA — and the toughest among East playoff teams outside of Detroit. That includes four back-to-backs, three instances of three games in four nights, and a punishing five-in-seven-night stretch to close the season.
For a team that relies on a tight rotation and is still down its All-Star point guard, the pace of the schedule may prove a bigger hurdle than any one opponent. It culminates with a brutal four-night stretch against Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland — all teams the Knicks have struggled to beat this season (0-3 vs. BOS, 0-2 vs. CLE, 1-2 vs. DET).
No. 4 – Pacers
Record: 40-29
Last 10: 6-4
Games Behind New York: 3
Games Remaining: 13
Remaining Opponents (by tier)
- Non Play-In Teams (5): vs. BKN, vs. WSH (x2), vs. CHA, @ UTA
- Play-In Teams (3): vs. MIN, vs. SAC, vs. ORL
- Top-6 Seeds (5): vs. LAL, vs. OKC, vs. DEN, vs. CLE (x2)
Indiana has the 18th-toughest remaining schedule, plus just two remaining back-to-backs. Their deep rotation means fresher legs — and likely fewer gambles down the stretch.
The Pacers split their season series 2-2 with New York, but with fewer tough matchups and a lighter travel load, they’re a threat to overtake the Knicks if New York continues to stumble. A Round 1 rematch could say more about where the Knicks stand after two offseason additions — Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges — than their regular-season record.
No. 5 – Bucks
Record: 39-30
Last 10: 5-5
Games Behind New York: 4
Games Remaining: 13
Remaining Opponents (by tier)
- Non Play-In Teams (3): vs. PHI, vs. NOP (x2)
- Play-In Teams (6): vs. SAC, vs. PHX (x2), @ ATL, @ MIA, @ MIN
- Top-6 Seeds (4): vs. DEN, @ NYK, vs. DET (x2)
Milwaukee has the softest closing schedule of these contenders. Tankathon ranks it bottom-10 in difficulty, and the layout helps, too: three on the road, three at home, three more on the road, then three of the final four back at home.
They’ll end the season with a pair of games against Detroit — both of which could shape the final seeding in the East. The Bucks have gone 10-6 since the All-Star break and are gaining steam. If they leapfrog into the 3- or 4-seed, they’ll be a tough first-round draw for anyone.
Kyle Kuzma’s adjustment after the Khris Middleton trade remains the swing factor: he’s struggled from three (29%) but has scored 20-plus in back-to-back games.
No. 6 – Pistons
Record: 39-32
Last 10: 5-5
Games Behind New York: 5
Games Remaining: 11
Remaining Opponents (by tier)
- Non Play-In Teams (3): vs. NOP, vs. SAS, @ TOR
- Play-In Teams (2): vs. MIN, vs. SAC
- Top-6 Seeds (6): @ CLE, vs. OKC, @ MEM, vs. NYK, @ MIL (x2)
Detroit faces the fifth-hardest remaining schedule, but the Pistons have built a cushion — five games up on No. 7 Atlanta — that all but locks in their postseason spot.
In fact, Detroit might prefer the status quo: the Pistons beat the Knicks twice this season and match up well. With physicality in the frontcourt, size at multiple positions, and a defensive identity, they present a challenge few expected. Plus Cade Cunningham made a real case to be an All-Star starter this season. He had a 15-assist triple-double and a 36-point game in separate victories over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden this season.
Mitchell Robinson’s return could change that equation, but make no mistake: Detroit is not a team the Knicks are eager to see in Round 1.
The standings as currently constructed make that No. 3 vs. No. 6 showdown a reality — another reason why these final 13 games mean much more than just marks in the win and loss column at the end of the season.
