A prominent Wall Street economist who had slammed President Trump’s tariffs earlier this year now says that the president may have “outsmarted all of us” with his controversial trade policies.
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at investment giant Apollo Global Management, said that while the uncertainty surrounding trade policy has already started to weigh on the economy, Trump could lower tariffs on most of the US trading partners while using the levies to boost federal revenue.
Sløk suggested in a recently posted analysis that the administration’s approach may be more strategic than previously thought.
The optimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to his earlier position.
In April, Sløk warned that Trump’s tariffs could trigger a recession by summer, particularly harming American small businesses and potentially halting the flow of goods from China to the US, leading to layoffs and a broader economic slowdown.
This time around, Sløk suggested that one potential move could be to keep 30% tariffs on Chinese imports while imposing 10% tariffs on all other countries — offering them a 12-month window to reduce non-tariff barriers and liberalize trade access.
“Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs,” Sløk wrote.
“It would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.”
Beyond calming volatile markets, Sløk notes that such a move could deliver a sizable boost to US government revenue. He estimates the plan could generate $400 billion in annual tax revenue — a figure that could help offset budget deficits without raising domestic taxes.
“This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,” he wrote.
“Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”
Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, told The Post via email: “President Trump was right all along? Many such cases!”
Trump announced on Friday that the US has signed a new trade agreement with China. The full text of the agreement has not been made public, and details remain limited.
At the same time, the Trump administration faces a looming July deadline as its 90-day pause on tariffs with several global trading partners nears expiration.
Talks are ongoing with 18 nations, including the European Union, Japan, India, Vietnam and Malaysia. Some progress has been reported, such as a framework deal with the UK and early-stage agreements with Vietnam and India, though most deals are not finalized.
If negotiations fall through, the US is prepared to reimpose or raise tariffs. Analysts are skeptical that meaningful deals can be completed on such an aggressive timeline, warning that most trade pacts typically require years of negotiation.
With uncertainty mounting, the administration may push discussions beyond the July cutoff — possibly into early September — while attempting to stabilize global trade relationships.
