Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is not at risk of a recession in 2026 – adding that he’s “very, very optimistic” about the impact from President Trump’s tariffs and trade deals.
When asked whether the US could slip into a recession next year, Bessent said “no.”
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy,” Bessent told NBC News’ Kristen Welker during “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
Bessent added that Americans will feel relief next year as Trump’s tariffs, trade deals and “big, beautiful bill” set in.
Specifically, “health care is going to come down,” Bessent said, adding that details on this front will come this week.
It’s a sharp turnaround from earlier this year, when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan hiked odds of a US recession to 65% and 60%, respectively, after Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The two firms have since slashed those chances to just 30% and 40% as tariff rates have been negotiated lower.
Bessent acknowledged that some parts of the economy, like housing, have come under pressure.
Earlier this month, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said “we’re starting to see pockets of the economy that look like they might be in a recession.”
Bessent said Sunday that “housing has been struggling, and interest rate-sensitive sectors have been in a recession.”
The government shutdown – the longest-ever at 44 days – also weighed on the economy, Bessent said.
Trump has been touting his affordability agenda after cost-of-living concerns propelled Dems like socialist NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to victory earlier this month.
Economic concerns around inflation and the shutdown sent monthly consumer sentiment down to 50.3 in November, according to the University of Michigan.
That’s the lowest level in more than three years and close to the worst-ever reading.
US inflation heated up to 3% in September, the fastest rate since January, according to the Consumer Price Index.
Americans have seen prices spike on everything from a cup of coffee and kids’ toys to living room furniture and Amazon deals just ahead of the busy holiday shopping season.
While employers added a surprisingly strong 119,000 jobs in September, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, according to the most recently available data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The president has vowed to send $2,000 checks to most Americans before the 2026 midterms, though GOP lawmakers have pushed back on this idea.
But members of the Trump administration have said they remain confident that the president’s policies will stimulate the economy.
During an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Hassett predicted “it’s going to be an absolute blockbuster year ahead.”
“The good news for the next year is that the factories are going to be in place, and then people are going to start getting the jobs next to the machines and everything else,” he said. “And so it really, really is a very, very promising set of data.”
