KYIV — President Trump’s shocking claim that Ukraine “started” Russia’s invasion of its own country ripped through the European capital on Wednesday, leading many ordinary Ukrainians and even seasoned experts to fear Trump’s words will embolden Moscow to further escalate its war.
Though Trump has repeatedly said he wants to end Europe’s largest and deadliest war in eight decades, he may have inadvertently encouraged Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin to attempt a new advance from the north to try once again to retake Kyiv and overthrow Ukraine’s democratic government, experts, soldiers and civilians tell The Post.
Ukrainian intelligence officials recently uncovered a plan by Moscow to send an undetermined number of troops to Belarus this summer for “training exercises,” which experts say may actually be a military incursion by another name.
“Russians could use Belarus again to try to attack Ukraine from the north to change the configuration [of the battlefield],” international relations analyst and modern warfare expert Mykhailo Samus told The Post. “Normally, Russia tries to cover their battle operations, and so we are monitoring the situation in Belarus.”
Putin used the same pretense when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
Zelensky raised Kyiv’s concerns publicly at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 15.
“Is this Russian force in Belarus meant to attack Ukraine? Maybe. Or maybe not. Or maybe it’s meant for you,” he said, referring to European countries in attendance.
Samus estimated that if Moscow sends “more than 15,000” troops to Belarus, the Kremlin “could organize some operations.”
“If less, OK, maybe it’s a normal exercise and the Russians just are going to train some troops together with Belarus troops,” he said.
Others noted the Belarus exercises were hatched before top US diplomats met with Russian leaders for talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
“I see no direct connection between this as Putin was planning a new incursion in Ukraine this spring months before,” a Ukrainian Armed Forces analyst and active duty soldier told The Post.
“Putin [will] only be encouraged if he sees US freezing military support for Ukraine and failure of [the] mobilization campaign in Ukraine,” he added, referring to Kyiv’s upcoming push to draft more Ukrainians for the war effort.
Still, Stamus predicted that Trump’s words would also inspire Moscow to redouble its efforts at the front.
“Russia will definitely take advantage of this situation. All hybrid tools will be included — propaganda, blackmail, destabilization of the situation,” he said. “Russia will try to carry out successful actions on the front to demonstrate a strong position.”
John Hardie, the deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia Program, told The Post in an email that he feared “the recent US policy shifts and escalating recriminations between Presidents Trump and Zelensky are emboldening Moscow to double down on its maximalist demands and continue pressing its battlefield advantage. The Kremlin retains far-reaching ambitions in Ukraine and may now think it’s closer to achieving them.
“I worry that we’re on a collision course between Russian intransigence, Trump’s high expectations for a speedy deal, and Ukraine’s existential interests,” Hardie added. “President Trump … should tighten sanctions on Russia, particularly its oil revenue. That can shorten the amount of time that Russia’s economy can continue to sustain this war. Washington also needs to continue helping Ukraine’s forces exhaust Russia’s offensive potential and protect its cities and infrastructure from Russian strikes.
“The greater our leverage, the higher the chances of a good deal that protects US interests.”
Trump doubled down on his attacks against Ukraine’s leadership Wednesday morning on Truth Social, writing in part: “Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy [sic], talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars [sic], to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. [sic] and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle,” the president wrote, citing an inaccurate figure double the true amount of US money sent in aid.
The broadside left everyday Ukrainians questioning whether they should still consider the United States an ally.
“Ukrainians don’t understand what’s going on yet,” soldier Denys Yaroslavskiy told The Post. “Everyone is worried about Trump and Putin getting closer. Everyone sees that Trump has a complicated personal relationship with Zelensky.
“The main thing is that all of Ukraine not suffer because of personal issues.”
The enlisted man further warned that Russia would only become further emboldened once Trump and Putin meet face-to-face.
“The situation will get worse if Trump meets Putin in person and their friendly photos appear online,” he said. “Ukrainians treat Putin like a war criminal.”
But another Ukrainian soldier, who gave only his first name of Chaus, said it was important to realize that “Trump is not the United States of America”
“Trump is a populist and changes his vision, his thoughts, his views, two or three times a day — and even for an hour. No one knows what will come to Trump’s mind, and no one knows how he will behave,” he said. “But besides Trump, in the United States of America there is a government, there is a Congress, there are the people.”
Chaus said he believed Trump had been victimized by Russian propagandists.
“These are Russian narratives that they impose on Trump, and the Russians are very happy that Trump is voicing this and it will scare us,” he said, adding that he did not believe Moscow was powerful enough to succeed in a second attempt at taking Kyiv.
Zhytomyr-based small business owner Volodymyr Pimienov told The Post he was shocked by Trump’s words.
“I still can’t believe that a country that once stood as a model of reason and democracy — even if sometimes excessively so — has become one where critical thinking is in decline,” he said. “Is the US still a friend?”
Still, Pimienov said, was grateful for “every American [who] has personally contributed to Ukraine’s victory — out of their own pocket.”
“The exaggerated rhetoric about the ‘unbelievable costs of a war that cannot be won’ — driven by Putin’s propaganda and internal US corruption — shouldn’t mislead the majority of educated Americans,” he said. “And the absurd claim … that Ukrainians somehow started this war is as ridiculous as believing the Earth is flat.
“If anyone thinks that an analytical report about the possible plan for Putin to make another attempt to capture Kyiv through Belarus is the only logical option,” he added, “then this is news for them: Putin has a penchant for decisions that are neither logical nor predictable.”
