The first special elections since President-elect Donald J. Trump won a second term are arriving on Tuesday in Virginia, where voters in three races will determine the majorities in the state’s legislature.
At first glance, the contests hold little mystery: Democrats have significant advantages in the State House district and one of the two State Senate districts that are up for grabs, while the other district in the upper chamber is all but certain to remain in Republican hands.
But even if there are no upsets, the margins of the races will provide the first hints of voter attitudes as Mr. Trump prepares to take office for a second time. The two seats where Democrats are favored are both in Loudoun County, a Washington suburb that shifted hard toward the party during the first Trump presidency before tilting back toward the former president in November.
Democrats, who hold one-seat majorities in both Virginia chambers, have raised and spent considerably more to defend the two Loudoun seats than Republicans have in challenging them. Democratic candidates have traditionally won both districts easily, but some in the party had worried that a post-election malaise could jeopardize one or both of the seats.
One Loudoun seat is in the Senate, the other in the House. The Senate seat became vacant when Suhas Subramanyam, the Democrat who held it, was elected to Congress in November.
Then Kannan Srinivasan, a State House delegate, won the Democratic nomination to replace Mr. Subramanyam and resigned his seat. That prompted a special election for Mr. Srinivasan’s seat in the House. Democrats nominated JJ Singh, a former Capitol Hill aide who would most likely become the first turban-wearing Sikh elected to a state legislature in the United States.
Republicans nominated Tumay Harding, a schoolteacher, for the State Senate seat, and Ram Venkatachalam, an information technology consultant, for the State House one. They both emphasized their long-shot potential to end Democratic control of the legislative chambers.
But the Republicans have been heavily outspent. By the end of December, when the latest campaign finance reporting period concluded, Mr. Srinivasan had spent nearly $500,000 on the race, about four times what Ms. Harding had laid out.
In the State House race, Mr. Singh poured in $319,724, while Mr. Venkatachalam spent just a pittance — $13,262.
The Loudoun races also attracted the attention of Ken Martin, the chairman of the Minnesota Democrats and a front-runner in the contest to become the next leader of the Democratic National Committee. On Saturday, Mr. Martin campaigned in the districts.
While Democrats are expected to hold the two Loudoun seats — Mr. Biden won both districts in 2020 and Vice President Kamala Harris took them easily in November — the stakes for the contests are high. If Republicans did manage to win either, they would be able to block Democrats in the General Assembly from advancing state constitutional amendments on abortion rights, same-sex marriage and the restoration of voting rights for felons.
Democrats hold a 20-to-19 advantage in the Virginia Senate and a 50-to-49 majority in the House of Delegates.
One wild card: Northern Virginia was socked on Monday with the region’s biggest snowstorm in three years. Work crews are still clearing the snow, a heavy task as polls open on Tuesday morning. Loudoun County’s public schools will remain closed on Tuesday.
Republicans are also defending a State Senate district west of Richmond that became vacant when John J. McGuire, who had been in the legislature since 2018, was elected to Congress after ousting Representative Bob Good in a Republican primary election.
Republicans nominated Luther Cifers, a kayak entrepreneur, who is a heavy favorite against Jack Trammell, a Democratic sociology professor who in 2014 lost a race for Congress. Mr. Cifers has spent about $200,000 on the race, 10 times as much as Mr. Trammell’s investment.
Mr. Trump won about 60 percent of the vote in Mr. McGuire’s Senate district, while Glenn Youngkin, the state’s Republican governor, took about 70 percent in his 2021 election.
