Who’s winning the Congressional redistricting wars? Where the maps stand now

Democrats have grabbed a surprising edge in the nationwide redistricting wars for now after a federal court struck down President Trump’s effort to reshape the Texas congressional map, giving the opposition party a critical boost as it aims to retake the House of Representatives in the crucial 2026 midterm elections.

With Republican hopes of flipping five Democratic seats in the Lone Star State on ice for now and GOP efforts in Indiana and other red states hitting roadblocks, Democrats may actually gain a handful of seats from the unprecedented race to draw new maps in the middle of the decade.

That’s because Democrats have pushed back much harder than anticipated against Trump’s gambit in California and elsewhere, laying the groundwork for the left to redraw maps in states they control and pick up several seats of their own.

With the GOP holding only a narrow five-seat edge in the House, the Democratic boost from redistricting could by itself make Team Blue the odds-on favorites to win back the House next year.

A Daily News analysis of the changes that have been enacted so far, shows Democrats likely to flip up at least six GOP-held seats from the new maps in blue states compared to just three for Republicans in red ones, a surprising net edge of three seats for Democrats.

Republicans still have credible chances of flipping up to 12 other seats, that is if they succeed in eventually getting the Supreme Court to reinstate their new Texas map and win a smorgasbord of skirmishes in red states. The most notable opportunities are in Indiana and Florida, which have so far not jumped into the fray but may eventually do so.

But Democrats could pick up another six seats of their own from potential changes in states like Virginia that hope to move ahead with redistricting but have not yet formally done so.

The political stakes are very high.

As things stand now, Democrats would only likely need to flip three seats to retake control of the chamber. If they succeed, it would give them a potent check on Trump’s aggressive right-wing second-term agenda and the power to launch congressional investigations into what they see as his wrongdoing and corruption.

A Democratic-held House would also likely elect Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as the first Black Speaker of the House, although the Brooklyn lawmaker may have to fend off a progressive primary challenge first.

New maps aside, Democrats have the political winds at their back. They outperformed expectations with landslides in the recent off-year elections and are dominating recent polls of the so-called generic ballot, in which voters are asked which party they plan to support.

Trump, meanwhile, is facing abysmal approval ratings, especially on key issues like his handling of rising prices and the economy, numbers that historically would signal big midterm defeats for the president’s party.

Here’s a state-by-state primer on where things stand in the national redistricting battle:

National scorecard

AS THINGS STAND NOW: DEMS flip 6 Republican seats. GOP flips 3 Democratic seats

POSSIBLE FUTURE SHIFTS: Democrats could flip up to 6 additional seats. GOP could flip up to 12 more seats

TEXAS 0 (down from GOP+5)

Trump started the map-drawing war by ordering Gov. Greg Abbott and his GOP allies to squeeze more Republican seats out of the biggest red state of them all, where they already held a lopsided 25-13 edge.

They used their total control of the state legislature to push through a new map that would effectively wipe out three Democratic seats and make two other districts much more GOP-friendly, for what most analysts predicted would be a five-seat pickup, creating a 30-8 Republican edge.

Last week’s court decision means Texas must revert to the old map it passed in 2021 unless the Supreme Court intervenes.

CALIFORNIA DEM+5

Led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Democrats countered by moving to replace the map created by an independent commission to one drawn by the legislature, a move that is expected to flip five Republican-held seats in the Golden State.

The California plan is also being challenged in court but unless a judge blocks it, the new map will go into effect regardless of whether Texas’s new map is upheld or struck down. That’s because lawmakers scrapped a “trigger clause” stating the California plan would go into effect only if Texas also moved forward.

Voters approved the plan by an overwhelming vote in a statewide referendum that analysts cite as Democratic support to fight fire with fire when it comes to Trump’s redistricting push.

MISSOURI GOP +1

Republicans enacted a new map that would chop up a Democratic district in Kansas City, almost certainly flipping it to the GOP.

Democrats are seeking to demand a state referendum on the map, a move which could delay the implementation of the map until after the midterms, but it’s unclear if the tactic will succeed.

NORTH CAROLINA GOP+1

Republican legislators passed a new map that will likely boost their majority in the swing state’s congressional delegation from 10-4 to 11-3 by adding plenty of deep-red turf to Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s rural district in the eastern part of the state.

Voting rights groups have sued to block the new map because on the grounds that it cheats rural Black voters out of a voice but it’s considered a long shot.

OHIO GOP+1

In a rare example of bipartisan detente, Democrats bowed to Republican plans for a new map that makes one Democratic-held seat significantly more likely to flip to Republicans.

Another light-blue seat in the Cincinnati area becomes much redder, but most analysts believe Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman can hold onto it.

NEW YORK 0 (up to DEM+1)

Dominant Democrats including Gov. Hochul say they want to counter Trump’s push by redrawing New York’s districts to increase the party’s edge from the current 19-7 split.

But no change can take place before the 2026 midterms and the earliest a new map could be implemented would be in 2028.

Democratic-aligned voting rights groups have separately sued over the map of Staten Island-based NY-11 district held by GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis. If they win, Democrats would have a good shot at flipping the seat, but opinions are split over the likelihood of success.

UTAH DEM+1

A state judge has ruled that the Republican state must vote using a new map that creates a deep-blue seat in the Salt Lake City area, flipping one GOP-held seat.

Republicans dropped plans to appeal, meaning Democrats are considered certain to pick up one seat.

VIRGINIA 0 (up to DEM+4)

Democratic lawmakers have taken initial steps to redraw their congressional map, which is now split 6-5 in their favor, in ways that could help them pick up three or even four seats in the blue-leaning state.

They have been emboldened by their landslide wins in this month’s off-year legislative and gubernatorial elections. But critics warn the process is complicated and is not sure to succeed.

FLORIDA 0 (up to GOP +4)

So far, Republicans have not taken any formal steps to redraw their congressional maps to nix some Democratic-held seats and boost their 20-8 edge in the state.

But Gov. Ron DeSantis recently said “stay tuned” on redistricting and a state legislative panel is expected to meet on the issue Dec. 4,  suggesting the Sunshine State may act before the midterms.

Some analysts say Florida Republicans might be able to redraw the map to flip up to four Democratic seats, but others say a one- or two-seat pickup is more realistic.

INDIANA 0 (up to GOP+2)

Trump has angrily demanded that Indiana redraw maps to eliminate the Hoosier State’s two Democratic held seats and create a 9-0 GOP map, including by chopping up heavily Democratic Indianapolis.

But Republican state lawmakers have resisted the push so far and the party’s leader in the state Senate says it won’t meet in a special session to redraw the maps.

KANSAS 0 (up to GOP+1)

Republican lawmakers have so far failed to wrangle needed support to scrap the state’s one Democratic-held seat in the Kansas City suburbs.

MARYLAND 0 (up to DEM+1)

The heavily Democratic state may try to eliminate its one GOP-held seat, but it’s not clear if that will happen.