Of course it’s more fun when we have a competitive general election for the New York City mayoralty. And of course, the media will try to stir things up. But I just don’t think a competitive election will happen and Zohran Mamdani will win in November. Here’s why:
The Democratic nominee starts with a massive built in advantage.
People like winners, they like charisma and they like people who succeed unexpectedly. Mamdani is only going to add more supporters as the campaign goes on.
Mamdani will pick up the support of all of the major Democratic institutions like labor and most electeds. That will result in more money, more GOTV (get out the vote) and more energy.
Mamdani will raise a lot of money both locally and nationally from small donors, as will any super PAC supporting him. Outspending him will be difficult and a few hedge funders pledging a few million bucks to incumbent Mayor Adams doesn’t change that.
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s super PAC spent as much as $25 million attacking Mamdani already. Not only did it not work, it likely inoculated Mamdani from future attacks. Voters saw the attacks and they didn’t work. Hearing the same things again won’t change that.
It’s hard to see how Cuomo does much better in the general running as an independent. Turnout will be higher but Curtis Sliwa and Adams will also be on the ballot. Yes, one poll has Cuomo running even with Mamdani. But that poll has Sliwa at 7% and he’s not going from 28% in 2021 to just 7% now. All of those votes will come from Cuomo. Adams will go after Cuomo hard on race and that will take away African American votes. Turnout in this primary was about one million. Turnout in the 2021 general election was 1.1 million. The votes aren’t there.
Adams is unpopular. Most polling has him in the teens for both favorability and reelect. There’s really nothing to change that other than the contrast with Mamdani, which already failed for Cuomo. Adams is probably right that his accomplishments are under-appreciated, but it’s hard to see that meaningfully changing in the short term.
Summer is often a difficult time in the city. Violence rises as the heat kicks in. If anything, Adams may have a more difficult few months ahead. And no one gets credit for the absence of problems if things do go well.
Mamdani is a smart politician and will likely pivot intelligently. He’ll create a big tent and reach out to people who were not with him in the primary. He’ll tamp down the Israel issues by meeting with local Jewish leaders. He’ll be very accessible to media and community leaders. He might even get Jessica Tisch to agree to stay as police commissioner, which helps reassure the establishment that supported Cuomo.
GOP nominee Sliwa makes a coherent case for his campaign but there’s a ceiling on the GOP candidate except in extremely unusual situations (like Mike Bloomberg after 9/11 or Rudy Giuliani after the city saw a record high murders in the early 1990s).
Sliwa will not have President Trump’s support, which is deadly for a GOP candidate. On the other hand, Adams will likely have Trump’s support, which is also deadly for anyone running in a mainly Democratic city (and makes it hard for Democratic electeds or organizations to support Adams).
Trump will continue to be Trump which means he will enrage the left in every way possible and energize them for November.
Trump knows that Mamdani is the perfect foil for him (and vice versa) so he gets the best of both worlds: he can keep antagonizing liberals in New York and then help elect the person he’ll want to then use as an example nationally to show why leftist policies don’t work.
Mamdani won mainly by tapping into one of the two issues New Yorkers care about the most: affordability (the other is quality of life). His programs and ideas aren’t suddenly going to become less popular.
It’s politics, so things can always change. Giuliani was pretty unpopular by the end of his second term and then 9/11 happened and he was deified. So you never know what the future brings.
But based on what we know right now, it is hard to see Mamdani losing the general election. And given that, if you love New York City and want to see it thrive, even if Mamdani’s views and politics are not your own (they’re certainly not mine), let’s do what we can to help him succeed.
Tusk is a venture capitalist, political strategist and philanthropist.
