THE BEST GAMES TO BET
PACKERS at GIANTS
1 p.m., Packers by 7 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Tough one to figure with Jameis Winston making his first start with Jaxson Dart out with a concussion. There’s also the customary bounce a team gets after canning its coach to consider. The Packers’ offense has been dreadful but Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs have every opportunity to change that against a Big Blew defense that has allowed 129 points over a four-game losing streak. The Packers are traveling on a short week which is never good but at 5-3-1, they should be feeling some urgency.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.
COMMANDERS vs DOLPHINS in MADRID
9:30 a.m., Dolphins by 2 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The suspension of Daron Payne further weakens the Commanders’ interior defense and will leave plenty of running lanes for De’Von Achane. Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t have to worry about a pass rush (Commanders have registered four sacks in their last four games) and while he’s not Mr. Reliable, the Washington secondary has been depleted by injuries to Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos. Miami has been quietly coming on lately. The Commanders are winless in their last five ATS, four of them blowouts.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
CHARGERS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Chargers by 2 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: Neither team inspires confidence but in a battle between Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, we’re siding with Herbert. He was able to somehow beat the Steelers last week in spite of the absence of his two starting tackles, relying on his ability to get rid of the ball quickly on underneath routes. He’ll have to do the same this week against a rather mediocre D outside of their pass rush. As for Lawrence, he’s just not very good and the Jags have forgotten how to win.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
BEARS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Vikings by 3, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Vikings have been getting healthier and could be set for a second half run. The Bears are over-valued at 6-3 and have pulled out several games when they weren’t the best team on the field. The Vikes have owned the matchups, taking eight of the last nine meetings SU and will have a huge advantage against a very thin Chicago secondary. Andrew Van Ginkel’s return at LB boosted Minnesota’s run defense, taking away the biggest edge the Bears would have had running the football.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over.
BUCS at BILLS
1 p.m., Bills by 5 ½, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We’re going to take the points between two teams of relatively even strength. The Bills’ offense hasn’t been able to overcome spots when they are not running the ball well and Tampa Bay has been historically strong against the run. Although we can see Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield going up and down the field against each other, Allen will not have one of his favorite weapons in TE Dalton Kincaid. The forecast isn’t great but we still both QBs putting points on the board. The Bills are 0-3 as home favorite this year, and since October 2023 are surprisingly 9-12 ATS in that scenario. Keep an eye on the injury and weather reports, but for now we’ll happily take the points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
SEAHAWKS at RAMS
4:05 p.m., Rams by 2 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: This NFC West showdown is another true tossup. Both Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold on absolute heaters, but if we’re going to pick one it’s Stafford who is playing at his Super Bowl championship level. In addition, Seattle hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near this one. Darnold is quite familiar. The Rams turned him to mush when he QB’d the Vikings in last season’s playoffs. He’ll need a lot out of his run game against a top tier run D. Seattle’s top-ranked D will be a challenge, especially since the Seahawks can bring pressure without blitzing, but Stafford’s quick release can negate some of that.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
49ERS at CARDINALS
4:05 p.m., Niners by 3, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: The Cardinals were blown into Puget Sound by the Seahawks but that was against a team that has dominated them recently and against an elite defense that hounded Jacoby Brissett. This rivalry has been much more even with the Niners escaping with a one-point win in the first meeting after last year’s Arizona sweep. Brissett should be fine here. The Niners are near league bottom in QB pressure rate. The value is all on the Cardinals. They are 3-1 ATS at home and face a relatively evenly-matched opponent.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the under.
CHIEFS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 3 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s get this fact out of the way. Andy Reid is 22-4 SU following a bye. So there’s that. We also know how inept the Broncos’ offense has been outside of that fourth quarter explosion against the lowly Giants. That perception has a lot of public money on the Chiefs, who definitely need this win more than the Broncos. However, the Broncos are still an 8-2 team at home catching a field goal and the hook against a divisional rival. Their lackluster play as of late is partly from playing three games in 11 days and their defense is still playing at a high level. There’s no reason they can’t at least stay within a FG.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
RAVENS at BROWNS
4:25 p.m., Ravens by 8 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Ravens are back for sure but seem to be overvalued here. In spite of the Ravens’ blowout win earlier this season, this has been a closely-contested rivalry. In fact, the Browns have three outright wins in their last four home game against Baltimore They are 2-2 at home, 3-1 ATS, with the SU losses coming by one and four points and should feel comfortable after playing three of their last four games on the road. Lamar Jackson missed practice with a sore knee Wednesday. He’s been getting pounded behind a mediocre line and will be up against a very good pass rush. In fact, the Browns’ D may be better overall.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
COWBOYS at RAIDERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Cowboys by 3 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The state of the Dallas D aside, the Raiders don’t have much of a chance to keep up with the Cowboys offense not with a gimpy Geno Smith and his one-man (Brock Bowers) receiving corps. The Dallas run D has been abysmal but the addition of Quinnen Williams will help contain Ashton Jeanty and add something to the pass rush as well. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott should have his way with the Las Vegas secondary.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
LIONS at EAGLES
8:20 p.m., Eagles by 1 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: A lot of people, including us, had this pegged as last season’s NFC Championship Game and here they are, near the top of the league once more. We don’t see either team doing much on the ground so it will come down to the play of the quarterbacks. Jared Goff fares much worse when under pressure and Philly’s pass rush is even better with the trade for Jaelan Phillips. Dan Campbell’s 11-2 record as a dog needs to be considered, as well as the Eagles’ short week. The trend this year for MNF teams to struggle the following Sunday.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Eagles and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
BENGALS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Steelers by 5 ½, 49
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the over.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
1 p.m., Falcons by 3 ½, 42 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the over.
TEXANS at TITANS
1 p.m., Texans by 7 ½, 38 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Vikings. Bears’ luck runs out.
LAST WEEK: 6-7; OVER/UNDER: 8-5
OVERALL: 76-71-1; OVER/UNDER: 79-67-2
BEST BETS: 8-2
