After scoring sweeping wins in last week’s off-year elections, Democrats hope to paper over their internal differences and ride a message of resistance to President Trump to more big gains in the crucial 2026 midterm congressional contests, even without a clear national leader or any unified policy strategy.
With Trump more unpopular than ever, moderate Democrats like New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill romped to victory in swingy suburbs while Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, energized young voters with calls for free buses and rent freezes in deep-blue New York City.
Virginia’s Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger proclaimed a victory of “pragmatism over partisanship” after her outsized win, which included shifts in the Democratic direction in every one of the state’s 133 cities and counties.
In other words, the political pendulum is swinging away from Republicans after Trump’s win in 2024, and Democrats believe they can win the midterms with a diverse group of attractive candidates bringing different messages to different audiences, depending on where they are running.
“A rising tide certainly lifts all boats,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections. “The lesson of (the off-year elections) is to run candidates that can win in the areas where they’re running. The contrasting split screen is less important when everyone is winning.”
“There’s nothing victory can’t fix,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst.
Democratic strategists and non-partisan analysts agree the common thread is anger over rising costs and Trump’s failure to improve the economy despite running on that promise.
That’s unlikely to change between now and next year, they say, giving Democrats a potential roadmap to victory in the midterms, when control of the House and possibly the Senate will be up for grabs, and Trump will once again not be on the ballot to drive turnout among his loyal MAGA base of supporters.
To the extent Democrats need to have a soul-searching debate and potentially divisive debate about the larger direction of the party, it can likely wait until after the midterms when candidates will start mobilizing support for the 2028 presidential race, analysts say.
Michael Hardaway, a Democratic strategist, said Trump is digging a deep hole for his GOP allies by failing to put a lid on prices and his unpopular tariffs, which amount to a self-inflicted political wound.
“The midterms are always a referendum on the president in power,” he said. “Trump is deep underwater with independent and moderate voters because they see the economy is dogs–t and he’s only making things worse. I see a blue wave coming.”
Even Republican strategists say Trump is making a big mistake by claiming the economy is booming and prices are going down while ordinary Americans are seeing the opposite in their daily lives.
Health care costs, a big winner for Democrats in the 2018 midterms blue wave, are also skyrocketing on his watch.
“There are so many warning signs (and) Republicans have now adopted the Democrat script of claiming everything is fine,” tweeted Erick Erickson, a conservative podcaster.
The stakes will be much higher 12 months from now, when Trump and Republicans will seek to keep a grip on the government and a mandate to extend his right-wing agenda on issues like immigration and deep government spending cuts.
Democrats need to flip only a handful of seats in 2026 to reclaim control of the House, where Republicans hold a narrow six-seat edge now.
Trump and the GOP have launched a controversial mid-decade redistricting effort in red states, but it’s unclear how many seats that will give them now that Democrats are fighting back in California and other blue states.
In the Senate, the path is much steeper for Democrats, with few winnable seats up for grabs. Democrats would need to win seats in Maine and North Carolina along with upsets in red states like Ohio, Iowa or Texas to turn the GOP’s 53-47 edge on its head.
So what happened to all those polls showing voters have record low approval of Democrats, even lower than Republicans in some surveys?
After Kamala Harris’s loss in 2024, aren’t Democrats still the same leaderless, rudderless party with no popular or dynamic counterweight to Trump?
Won’t Republicans turn Mamdani into a bogeyman who will drag moderate Democrats to defeat in the heartland, suburbs and even Latino neighborhoods from coast to coast?
The answer, experts say, is those issues are not likely to matter in the midterms, which will hinge moire on voters’ perceptions of Trump and his policies, especially when the president is such an outsized cultural figure and he won’t be on the ballot himself.
“He’s building a $300 million ballroom while we’re talking about how people are going to pay their bills,” said Rev. Al Sharpton, referring to Trump’s controversial demolition of the White House East Wing. “It’s adding insult to injury.”
Democrats will seek to unite behind a message of affordability, even if they may not agree with one another on divisive culture war issues like transgender rights and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
“What happened Tuesday won’t end the wailing and gnashing of teeth among Democrats after the disaster of 2024,” Sabato said. “But it will lower the volume. The party now has some triumphs to build on.”
