More than anything else this winter, the Mets need pitching. Juan Soto might be who fans want to see as the team’s next big free agent signing, but as his agent, Scott Boras, asserted, he wants to go somewhere with a strong pitching staff.
The rebuilding of the pitching staff started with qualifying offers to two of the team’s top starters from 2024. Not exactly a rebuild, but with the way left-hander Sean Manaea and right-hander Luis Severino performed last year, extending them qualifying offers was a no-brainer for David Stearns and his staff. The Mets will have to replace not only those two, but also left-handed starter Jose Quintana, and relievers Adam Ottavino, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Brooks Raley.
Let’s start with the starters. Much like last season, the Mets are looking for starters to sign contracts in the realm of 2-3 years. Manaea would be crazy to accept the qualifying offer, but the Mets could negotiate with him on a new deal and start from there. They could do the same with Severino if he doesn’t accept the qualifying offer.
Stearns said he’s looking for “multiples” at the General Manager Meetings this week in San Antonio, which could mean 2-3 pitchers from the mid-tier range like Manaea, Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi.
Former Dodgers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler are also free agents. The Mets just saw plenty of them in the NLCS and there are pros and cons to both of them. Flaherty, a right-hander, is only 29 and is coming off his best season since 2019. A Los Angeles native, he was traded to his hometown team last season and helped the Dodgers win a World Series, becoming an unlikely playoff ace with so many Los Angeles arms injured in October.
Buehler, another right-hander, came up with the Dodgers and helped them win two World Series. He’s known to be a big-game pitcher and though he’s a starter, he dropped the dagger on the Yankees in Game 5 last week with a clutch save. Buehler is coming off a rough season, the first for the right-hander since his second Tommy John surgery, but he was lights-out in the playoffs. For the most part, he’s always been that way in October, owning a 3.04 ERA in 18 playoff starts and one playoff save, but there is no guarantee he can replicate that success in the regular season.
However, he did not receive a qualifying offer from Los Angeles, so there is no draft pick compensation tied to him.
Other arms in that mid-tier range include Matthew Boyd, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney and former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, who is also coming off Tommy John surgery.
If the Mets want to swing for the fences with an ace, there are a few on the market. And no, I’m not talking about former Mets starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes and left-handers Blake Snell and Max Fried will be looking for contracts longer than 2-3 years. Will the Mets be willing to take a chance on one? It’s not likely, but it’s also not completely out of the question. Burnes obviously has a history with Stearns going back to their days in Milwaukee together, so fans are already starting to connect the dots.
The Mets are still hoping their organizational starting pitching pipeline will start flowing soon, but it’s tough to be able to count on that right now. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he isn’t afraid to wade into deep waters when he sees an inefficiency or a thin spot on the roster. Last year, with only a few days before spring training, the Mets signed DH J.D. Martinez with Cohen and Stearns seeing the need for an impact bat and protection for Pete Alonso. Two years ago, there was a deal in place with Carlos Correa before it infamously fell apart.
With the kind of money the Mets are working with, an ace is never out of the question. But long-term contracts for free agent pitchers over the age of 30 usually don’t age well, so if they’re happy with Kodai Senga as the ace, they’ll look for pitchers who are willing to be more flexible with their contract terms.
Last winter, the Mets played it safe with only moderate upgrades in the bullpen. They’ll need more than moderate arms this year. The bullpen proved to be a weakness in the postseason when the circle of trust shrunk to about 2-3 pitchers. Adding talent around Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nuñez will be crucial. The Mets already made a few changes in this area, signing right-hander Dylan Covey to a one-year contract and claiming Kevin Herget off waivers from the Brewers.
Pitching has to be the offseason priority and there are plenty of ways to make some upgrades.
