Los Angeles voters are fed up with the city’s direction, as rampant homelessness, soaring living costs and sky-high housing prices fuel frustration, a new California Post poll found.
A staggering two-thirds of those polled, 66.2%, said they were unhappy with the way the city was going, while just 16.4% believed it’s on the right track, according to the California Post-McLaughlin & Associates poll.
Meanwhile, 42% said they’ve seriously considered leaving the state of California in the past four years.
Homelessness topped the list of worries, with 47.3% naming it as their top concern in LA, followed by cost of living at 41.7%, and housing costs at 35.4%.
Overall, 74.1% named at least one pocketbook concern, along with housing affordability, inflation and government spending.
The Post commissioned the survey of 400 LA general election voters, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates from Oct. 15–18, using cellphone calls, text messages and landlines.
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“It seemed very high when four out of 10 residents in the city of Los Angeles wanna move out of state. They’re going to lose some of the most productive taxpayers and citizens,” pollster John McLaughlin told The Post.
“I’ve not seen numbers like that. Possibly in New York, but other than that, that’s a very high number, because you’re saying seriously consider it. You know, it’s not a flippant thing,” he added.
Voters also returned a damning verdict on whether they want Karen Bass as their mayor after the election next month, with an overwhelming majority disapproving of the job she has done.
The survey found 71.7% of voters disapprove of her reign, while just 25.5% approve, figures that McLaughlin described as ”shocking” for a Democratic mayor in a deep blue city.”
The disapproval is across all ages, races and with both sexes. It leaves LA staring down the barrel of a socialist-backed Nithya Raman sweeping to power, having surged in the ratings with younger voters.
Raman, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, leads Bass 46.7% to 38.8% in a head-to-head matchup, with 13.5% undecided.
Bass is also facing a backlash from her own party, with a staggering 65.5% of registered Democrats surveyed disapproving of her job performance.
Bass’ numbers are particularly bad among young voters. Just 12.3% of voters ages 18 to 29 approve of her, compared with 48.4% of those older than 65.
16.6% of those polled pointed to the mayor’s job performance when asked what they disliked most about Bass, 11.5% to her personality and 8.8% to her wildfire response.
But there’s a glimmer of hope for Bass: Pollsters warned Raman’s lead could evaporate if older voters stick with the incumbent while younger voters fail to turn out.
Older voters could prove critical, according to Dan Schnur, a political analyst who teaches at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine.
“The strength of Raman’s support comes from young voters who do not turn out as reliably as their parents and grandparents,” he said. “Bass is judged unfavorably by voters of every age group, but her strongest support comes from the oldest voters.”
Despite Bass’s dismal approval ratings, Raman has yet to win over a majority of voters, with 45.4% viewing her favorably and 43.7% unfavorably.
Raman’s left-wing politics drew the sharpest criticism, with 15.3% citing her socialist ties through the DSA as their biggest concern. Another 14.4% called her ineffective, 13.1% branded her policies radical and 10.3% questioned her experience.
Asked which candidate was more extreme, 41% pointed to Raman, compared with just 16.4% for Bass. The remaining 42.6% declined to choose.
Veteran pollster Justin Wallin, a political strategist and fellow at USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, warned Raman’s lead does not guarantee a victory. He compared the contest to a recall election, saying widespread dissatisfaction with an incumbent doesn’t automatically translate into support for a challenger.
“The incumbent is not liked, this is true. But the challenger must give voters a ‘home’ that they are more comfortable with than the status quo… this is more difficult than it appears,” he said.
“If anyone says they know for certain which way this race will go come Election Day, they are pulling your leg,” Wallin said. “It is simply too close to call.”
The voters who backed unsuccessful independent candidate, Spencer Pratt, in the June primary, will be crucial in deciding the race, Schnur told The Post.
“The Pratt vote is key. That’s why Bass talked so much about law and order and public safety in the debate, and it’s why the DSA candidate quoted Ronald Reagan in her opening statement,” he said.
Raman also leads Bass on empathy, with 37.1% of voters saying she cares more about people like them, compared with 22.5% for Bass. The remaining 40.4% were undecided or declined to answer.
Meanwhile, geographically, Raman leads in the San Fernando Valley 44% to 38%.
Bass dominates the combined Westside and Harbor area, 52% to 27%. But Raman is also leading in Central LA, East LA and South LA.
Schnur said Bass’s only play now is to go after her opponent.
“Bass isn’t gonna change the voters’ minds about her at this point,” he said. “The question is whether she can make them even more frightened of Raman.”
“The path is still there, but the window’s closing very rapidly.”
Election Day is on November 3.
